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Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard (UFC Lightweight Championship)
Frankie Edgar had one hell of a 2010. Upsetting B.J. Penn in April to capture the UFC Lightweight Championship was just the beginning, because he did it again in more convincing fashion in August. The way he completely flustered and frustrated Penn in the rematch, using his speed and footwork to out-strike Penn while mixing in perfectly timed takedowns, was one of the more impressive performances seen in the UFC all year.
Maynard picked up two wins in the UFC in 2010 himself, moving his career record to 10-0 with one no contest. His dominant decision win over Kenny Florian in August solidified his status as the #1 contender to the title, and with a win over Edgar already under his belt, he enters this rematch as the favorite.
But Edgar's game has evolved immensely since that fight in 2008. His striking game is much more technical, and his footwork and speed are on a completely different level than they were two and a half years ago. The key to this fight for Edgar is stopping Maynard's takedowns, and getting up off the ground if he gets taken down.
I think the improvements he's made to every aspect of his game will allow him to outstrike Maynard and keep the fight standing long enough to win rounds. He's also at a point where he's entirely confident in his abilities, and he'll look to implement his gameplan throughout the fight. It's going to be a hard fight, it's going to be a close fight, but I think Edgar finds a way to avenge his only loss and retain his title on Saturday night.
PREDICTION: Edgar via unanimous decision
Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann (Middleweight)
Chris Leben's two wins in two weeks this summer stamped his return to the consciousness of MMA fans after a wholly forgettable 18 months that saw him lose to Michael Bisping, pop for steroids and serve a suspension only to return and lose to Jake Rosholt by submission in a fight he was winning. A preliminary card win over Jay Silva kicked off the year for The Ultimate Fighter season one veteran, but it was the win over Yoshihiro Akiyama on ten day's notice after defeating Aaron Simpson that brought Leven back.
For Brian Stann, a former Lt. in the United States Marine Corps, this marks the most high profile fight of his career. The former WEC Light Heavyweight Champion made his middleweight debut in August after a 2-2 campaign in the UFC's 205 lb. class. His third round triangle choke victory over Mike Massenzio earned him "Fight of the Night" honors, and his request for this fight with Leben was granted by UFC matchmaker Joe Silva.
Both fighters will be looking to knock the other out in this fight, and it's highly likely to be a standing brawl for much of it's duration. Leben is simply a much more accomplished veteran of the sport, and has an inhuman ability to take punishment and keep fighting. That chin will allow him to take what will likely be some vicious punches from Stann in order to land his big left hand, and it will be Leben taking home yet another victory in the UFC.
PREDICTION: Leben via TKO in the second round
Brandon Vera vs. Thiago Silva (Light Heavyweight)
Brandon Vera had all the hype in the world behind him in 2006. After winning the first three fights of his UFC career, Vera took on former Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir at UFC 65 and rolled through him in 69 seconds. But since that win, Vera's been on a run of uninspired performances, disappointing losses unfulfilled expectations for himself. Over his last eight fights, he's won just three, and is coming into this bout off of the most devastating of his five losses, when Jon Jones broke his face in three places with elbows in March.
Silva has been out of action for a year and is 1-2 in his last three fights. However, those two losses - the only he has suffered in his career - were against Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans. At the same time, of the five fighters Silva has defeated in the UFC, not one is still on the organization's roster.
This is a do or die fight for both fighters. They both need to win, and the loser is likely to be cut from the roster following this event. It should be a competitive back and forth fight, but Silva's aggression can win him this fight. Vera can pull it out, but if Silva's healthy I like his chances.
PREDICTION: Silva via TKO in the second round
Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim (Welterweight)
Nate Diaz has found new life in the welterweight division since moving up from lightweight in 2010, pulling off two straight victories in highly impressive fashion during the year. However, he's running up against a massive test in the bigger, stronger grappler in Dong Hyun Kim on Saturday night.
Kim's out-grappled a number of fighters inside the Octagon, bullying fighters around with his size and his judo game, most recently in his bout with Amir Sadollah at UFC 114 in May. But Kim is far from unbeatable. He was out-pointed by Karo Parisyan at UFC 94 in a split decision loss, but Parisyan was popped for the use of painkillers after the fight and the bout was overturned to a no contest. He was also the beneficiary of a split decision over Matt Brown that many believed could have or should have gone the other way.
Diaz employs a similar striking strategy as his brother Nick, using his long limbs to pepper punches at a frenetic pace throughout a fight. But he doesn't have the power Nick brings to the cage, and his game has always been about getting fighters down to submit them with his jiu jitsu game.
I don't think I can see Kim being submitted in this fight. He's got the strength and size to power out of attempts from Diaz, but Diaz can score points with his striking throughout the fight and might be able to score on the ground if Kim gets him there. It should be another close fight, but I'll take the slight upset in Diaz.
PREDICTION: Diaz via unanimous decision
Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi (Lightweight)
In what is sure to be a fantastic lightweight fight on the card, Takanori Gomi will be looking to follow up on his brutal knockout of Tyson Griffin at UFC on Versus 2 in August. After getting out-classed by Kenny Florian in his UFC debut, the former Pride Lightweight Champion and one of the most accomplished lightweight fighters in the sport stopped Griffin in the first round, becoming the first person to ever finish Griffin.
After consecutive losses to Diego Sanchez and Florian halted a three fight run for Guida, he's responded with two straight finished in 2010. His submission win over Shannon Gugerty was excellent, and then he forced Rafael Dos Anjos to give up to the pain caused by a broken jaw in August.
Guida's going to come out with an extremely high pace as he always does, and Gomi will look to keep the fight standing and do to Guida what he did to Griffin. This should be a fantastic, energetic and exciting fight, but I think Gomi finds his punch and finishes "The Carpenter" in a crazy one round bout.
PREDICTION: Gomi via KO in the first round
=====ION TV PRELIMINARY CARD=====
Marcus Davis vs. Jeremy Stephens (Lightweight)
In three of Marcus Davis' last four fights, he's taken some vicious beatings. From a decision loss in a grudge match against Dan Hardy to getting knocked down and choked out by Nate Diaz, Davis has taken a ton of punishment, prompting this move to the lightweight division.
Stephens has lost three of his last five fights, but he's been competitive in all of them, and had a case for getting the nod in his last fight, which was dropped by split decision to Melvin Guillard, snapping his two fight win streak.
Davis has a size advantage into the fight, but how he handles the cut to 155 lbs. will determine how well he's able to perform in this one. If Stephens can keep the pace up, he should be able to tag Davis early and often with punches, eventually tiring out "The Irish Hand Grenade" and finishing him off.
PREDICTION: Stephens via TKO in the third round
Josh Grispi vs. Dustin Poirier (Featherweight)
Extremely exciting 22-year-old featherweight Josh Grispi has logged a total of six minutes and 51 seconds of fight time under the Zuffa banner. He's beaten four fighters in that time span, submitting three and knocking out two to move his career record to 14-1. He was initially supposed to challenge Jose Aldo for the new UFC Featherweight Championship on the card, but with Aldo pulling out due to injury, he took this fight instead.
The 21-year-old Poirier fought twice in the WEC prior to this merger, losing for the first time by decision to Danny Castillo and then knocking out Zach Micklewright in under a minute. All eight of his wins have come by stoppage, and he is making his featherweight debut in this fight.
While Poirier is a dangerous challenge, this is absolutely Grispi's fight to win. The 5' 11" featherweight is one of the tallest fighters in the division, and his reach is simply another factor in setting up what he's able to do. This is another fight that shouldn't take very long, but I think "The Fluke" proves once again that he's anything but.
PREDICTION: Grispi via KO in the first round
Phil Baroni vs. Brad Tavares (Middleweight)
Baroni and Tavares were given this spot because Baroni got fans to start tweeting UFC President Dana White to put this fight on television. The New York Badass will be looking to get his first UFC win since his 18 second knockout of Dave Menne in September of 2002.
Tavares enters with an undefeated record through six fights, and Baroni will be the most experienced fighter he's ever faced.
If Tavares can avoid the headhunting from Baroni in the first round, as has been seen over his last several fights, Baroni may not be able to keep up the pace, which would allow Tavares to overtake him in the latter rounds to take a decision. However, Baroni is in a desperate spot here, and did what he could to put this fight on television, so we'll see him hopefully at his best possible level in this fight, and I'll take the upset.
PREDICTION: Baroni via KO in the first round
=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS=====
* Mike Brown over Diego Nunes via submission in the second round
* Daniel Roberts over Greg Soto via submission in the first round
* Jacob Volkmann over Antonio McKee via submission in the second round
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/penickstake/article_7996.shtml
Bas Rutten Tarec Saffiedine Alessio Sakara Kazushi Gracie Hunter Sakuraba Hayato Sakurai Ivan Salaverry
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